the Future of CPS Blasters

[marauder]

Isoaker's comments in SEAL's Downpour report got me thinking about this issue. Basically, Super Soaker owns the rights to use CPS technology. By CPS technology I mean any type of rubber bladder firing chamber. According to isoaker...

The patent in question got a reissue date of Dec, 2007. Not 100% sure how much extension they get on that, but we're only 5 years in to a possible 14-17 year exclusion from other companies making CPS systems without needing to pay licensing fees (assuming the license is available).
Patents, alone, do not stop development, but since the current market is already having a tough time selling water blasters, the addition of a licensing fee were it available still makes it non-profitable to use that technology to develop a water blaster.
Fair or not, the problem now that the patent was awarded is that fighting it is a very expensive proposition with no definite conclusion.

This is bad for us. There's 9-12 years left on this "exclusion," a very long time. Hold on to your Vindicators and Tigersharks! They will become increasingly valuable as time goes on.

With that out of the way, I want to address my real thoughts on this issue which is, this is not as bad as it initially seems. I think we would all agree that the last new gun to be true to ye CPS of olde was the 2100 (not counting the 4100 as it was just a recolored monster). The 2100 was released TEN years ago, and although the 2100 and 4100 were rereleased in 2003, that's still a very long time that we've gone without new weapons of this caliber. Water Warriors guns like the Vindicator and Tigershark are great, but their power is still dwarfed by ye old CPS line. We don't even know if WW would release a gun as powerful as the 1500 if they were still legally entitled to use elastic firing chambers. So, my first point is that we've been without true power for a long time now, this is nothing new.

My second point is that Super Soaker has been afraid of using CPS technology since it released the 2100. There have been 7 elastic tech Super Soakers released over the last 10 years. If you take into account the fact that most of these are rereleased a year after their introduction that averages out to about 1.4 CPS tech Super Soakers available every year. Obviously the problem is that their performance has been sub-par. I will address this in my next point.

A common excuse for sucky performance has been "Super Soaker is simply unwilling to make large blasters capable of old school performance." There have been 3 guns since 2005 that have been as big or bigger than a CPS 1000 - the Aquapack Devastator, the Hydroblitz, and then most recently the Hydrocannon. Also, consider the fact that a single Triple Aggressor or Lightning Storm, non CPS guns would take up more shelf space than a CPS 1000. I can understand the "shelf space" business argument being acurate for MXL or CPS 3000 size guns, but recent history has shown us that SS is not afraid to release a gun the size of a CPS 1000.

When it comes to production cost I can't imagine that the Hydrocannon was cheaper to produce than the CPS 1000. In fact, with all the electronics, add ons, etc. I wouldn't be surprised if the Lightning Storm cost more to produce than the CPS 1000. There's really no business reason why Super Soaker can't release a gun on par with a 1000/1200/2100 these days.

So, the question is... will they? Trends come and go. How long did EES last? How long did the Super Charger or Max D line (line, not tech) last? Toy companies are always looking for something new to advertise to get more consumers. We are in the second year of the electronic "debacle." I would not be surprised if we saw something different next year, and I will be very surprised if we don't see something drastically new in 2 years. SS already advertised the Lightning Storm as having the largest capacity of any super soaker ever. I would not be surprised if they released a gun on par with the 1000 and advertised it as the most powerful watergun ever. When the XP line was released SS released commercials showing classic users getting hosed down by more powerful XP 55s etc. Kids aren't stupid. If SS released commercials showing Electrostorm users getting hosed down by new CPS guns it would be exponentially more of a massacre than XP 55 vs SS 60. Kids would notice, and I think kids er parents would buy. There's just really no reason why SS can't make another gun on par with the CPS 1000. And if worse comes to worse and they don't... well we've already been in this situation for a long time now so we're already as low as it can get.

[the oncoming storm]

Yes water warriors has been blocked from making hydro power gun's but most everyone on the list has forgotten the aqua masters pulse series from 2009 the pulse master was on par with the CPS 10/12/2100 in almost every aspect except Shot time they just need to use the spring PC consept and make more guns with this forgotten teck

[SEAL]

I think the main problem is that power isn't the driving force behind the manufacturing of water guns. All companies want is to make money by selling a lot of products. Hasbro is using cool-looking products as it's weapon, and BBT seems to be using a similar approach to Larami's years ago, but toned down a little. Personally, I don't see why powerful blasters wouldn't sell worse than what's on shelves now, but who knows what goes on in the minds of executives.

CPS1200fann: I'd have to see a Pulse Master in action before I believe that it's on par with small CPS. I heard it was slightly less powerful than the Vindicator, which I have seen and it can shoot about as far as my 1200, but the stream is much thinner and less "violent". I've also seen the Pulse Blaster, which didn't impress me.

[marauder]

If SS released advertisements showing the power of CPS vs what they currently produce, I'm sure it'd sell. This type of marketing has been done before (XP vs SS, CPS, Max DISTANCE, etc.).

Unfortunately I've never seen a pulse master or pulse blaster. I went back to look at myVindicator review, and I have the Vindicator's nozzle as 5.5x and shooting 40 feet, that's equivalent to the 1000/1200/2100. My problem with the Vindicator is the rear mounted grip/handle. I remember Wetmonkey's Tigershark as being pretty powerful, but I wasn't able to tell just what level it was on. All of this is a moot point though, 'cuz WW can't make any more CPS type guns for a long time. We just gotta hope SS returns to form.

[HBWW]

I've long considered the mainstream market to be completely irrelevant for anything more than sidearms and light blasters. There hasn't been anything remotely capable as a "standard combat blaster" since that time. The solution, while less than ideal, has been what we're stuck with: CPS circulating eBay and garage sales/friends, and while the trends will change, I haven't seen a shred of evidence that leads me to be (to any degree) optimistic that the mainstream market will be able to support primary blaster needs of the community. In other words, I'd say that good homemade designs would get us farther than waiting on the market (and that's saying a lot given how slow progress has been both for me and for the community as a whole) which does not really have any real reason to deliver and hasn't done so for almost a decade. If it happens, great. If it doesn't, then nothing has changed anyway. We don't have a whole lot going for us in the market: the innovation-stifling CPS patent, BBT's constraints and limitations, and the fact that Hasbro is extremely unlikely to actually sell anything on combat performance, only on looks and gimmicks (Nerf demonstrates this perfectly. Look at the latest dart blasters).

That said, stranger and unexpected things have happened. I'd prefer to be wrong and M4 right in this case, but I just don't quite see it happening, other than the deja vu of returning to motorized blasters. While the market played a significant role in sparking the community, the market has became more and more irrelevant to the community over time. I think that perhaps we're in a cycle of the community not being significant enough to influence the market, and the market not being large and good enough to spark community interest.

[marauder]

I think that perhaps we're in a cycle of the community not being significant enough to influence the market, and the market not being large and good enough to spark community interest.

I don't disagree with this at all, but Super Soaker doesn't need us to inspire them to make powerful guns again. It makes good business sense, and that is what this is all about, business. If kids see a commercial showing a powerful 1000 equivalent hosing down electrostorm users they will want to own one. Hell, I could argue that the Hydrocannon was supposed to be something like this. If SS is willing to release the Hydrocannon then how could they be against releasing a more powerful CPS gun? A gun like the 1000 would take up less shelf space, shoot further, shoot for a longer amount of time, and hold more water.

It's not that Nerf is anti performance, they are pro business. In the past it made business sense to market performance - XP, CPS, 20% more water with the XPs in 2000, Max DISTANCE, Max Infusion (capacity is more performance). My point is that, trends come and go in the toy industry, SS will need something new to market soon, and yes performance is marketable.

[isoaker]

A few thoughts here:
- Hasbro has been able to get away in the past few years with making more expensive-to-produce water blasters since their Super Soaker brand is only part of their revenue stream. Their larger overall revenue stream also allows them to advertise more and they simply have the sheer brand recognition of the "Super Soaker" name.
- Buzz Bee Toys' Water Warriors brand is only just now starting to get more recognition, 9 years after it was first introduced. Performance and competitive pricing has helped, but since the Water Warriors brand accounts for a larger percentage of Buzz Bee Toys' overall revenue, they cannot take as many chances with making things that may not sell as well as expected.
- While consumers like using more powerful water blasters, so far, there has not been strong indication they are willing to pay for them. These days are far from how things were back in 1998, especially with people generally choosing to spend much more of their free income on their phones, video games, etc. I remember even before the Super Soaker existed, in summer months, I'd see pretty much a water fight during any good weekend and many weekdays in the summer in various neighborhoods. I think I've only seen 2 or 3 water fights in my local neighborhood all summer long (and one of those was a water fight I held ) You don't need a good water blaster to have a good water fight; to have fun, you just need the interest. What a good water blaster does is make a good fight even better, but a good water blaster by itself without interested players is useless. Moreover, as much as we'd like to think performance sells, looks/styling seem to sell faster these days.
- when it comes to truly pushing air performance, as noted above, to get good performance results, you really need larger PCs and internals to back-it-up. There is currently an unspoken acceptable size limit imposed, not by manufacturers, but by retailers. Bigger products take up more space and take away space from other items. One big item than may sell for $30-$40 may be occupying the same space that could be used for 10 smaller items selling for $8-$10.
- regarding the Aqua Master Pre-Charger series, given current manufacturing costs and tolerated consumer pricing, that tech is just too expensive to make at the moment since it requires more tubing and valves as compared to a standard air-pressure water blaster

All that said, I still remain optimistic. Even with the various restrictions, I think Buzz Bee Toys will continue to make their blasters perform as best as they can. Hasbro may hopefully decide to start making use of CPS-technology once again if there foray into the motorized water blaster realm proves not-to-profitable. Then there's room for homemade builders; not quite in the sense of expecting homemade water blaster building to become commonplace, but rather that someone comes up with something that could revolutionize the water blaster world again. The original Super Soaker began as a homemade - what technology have we not tapped yet in the water blaster realm?

Dream on and soak on!

[SEAL]

If consumers are willing to pay for Lightning Storms and other motorized crap, I don't see why they wouldn't want something like a CPS 1200 or 1500, which would probably cost around the same amount, if not cheaper. If they're worried about shelf space, then how could they have produced the Nerf Vulcan? Some things just don't make a lot of sense.

marauder: I don't know about you, but having seen Scott's Vindicator, I think the stream looked a lot thinner than a 1000/1200/2100 stream, though he might have had it on a smaller nozzle. Heck, I've never seen any Vindicator's stream being any bigger than my Vanquisher's, which is comparable to an MD 6000. Does anyone ever use the 5.5X?

[marauder]

I don't know man, that's just what I measured. We do have to remember this - output isn't always synonymous with stream thickness. If a gun has a higher stream velocity it can put out the same amount, or more, than a gun with a larger nozzle. Here are is an example:
XP 70 vs SS 100 mk2
1.8mm nozzle vs 1.6mm nozzle
1.2 oz/sec vs 2 oz/sec

It could be a very real possibility that the Vindicator puts out as much as most 1000s/1200s/2100s without having as thick of a stream. I don't remember what nozzle Scott likes to use, and I don't remember what nozzle Tiff was using at Hydropocalypse. Maybe Scott can give us more info on the Vindicator. Also, I rate the Vindicator's top output as 5.5x that of that of the XP 70, but I rate most 1000/1200/2100 marks at around 5.5x, with the least variation found among 1000 marks (so little that I question if there is even any performance difference between marks) and the most variation among 2100 marks (4x to 6x output depending on mark). So, I'm not saying the Vindicator can shoot more than most low CPS, I'm saying the output is comprable. Also, I have only tested 1 Vindicator, where as I tested about 3 to 6 of each 1000/1200/2100, meaning that my Vin could be on the high end and shoot more than the avg Vin. I checked Isoaker to see what he got and it comes out to 5.6x, so really I feel confident that the Vindicator does put out a lot of water, it just doesn't have the same thickness as the low end CPS guns. As for the Vanquisher, I've never owned or tested one, but according to Isoaker the top output comes out to 2.5x, which is somewhere between my Max D 6000 (2.1x) measurement and XP 150 (2.83x) measurement. Perhaps we should do a Vindicator vs Vanquisher test this fall, 'cuz honestly, you're right, the stream sizes don't look too different.

[DX]

I don't buy the shelf space limitation argument much, because of the longshot...and the longstrike...and the vulcan...and the hydroblitz...and the hydrocannon...and the Hailfire...and the gazillion other toys out there with big boxes. I just don't buy the 5 cheaper items over 1 big item thing. Every isle will have something to prove that wrong. Those smaller items are not guaranteed to sell, even being cheaper. If they were, there'd be lines of 20" HDTVs and no 50" screens. Course I'm not saying that bigger is necessarily better. I'd think a diverse strategy would work best - some small models, some medium ones, some big ones. If the big ticket doesn't sell, you can fall back on the small stuff over time, and if the small stuff is crap, the big ticket could make up for it in one fell swoop.

I also don't buy the pricing argument, because many of the modern Nerf and NSS models are quite expensive, relative to size. Then again, it is Hasbro and retailers know the Nerf brand sells. The have more leeway to produce these things, but the point is that they do. Every time I go to Target I see tons of wasted shelf space anyway.

I don't even really buy the mainstream market not caring about performance argument, either, because Nerf and Super Soaker have been going in such opposite directions, yet it's the same company, now even the same division, and similar people purchase their products. Nerf has actually been trying to improve, with the Longshot, Alpha Trooper and Raider, with the magazines, and now with the Elite Series. They've improved their darts, scrapped the reverse plungers, doubled the stock ranges, etc. Doesn't sound like a line pandering to the little kids who don't care about performance. Those changes have all increased performance and with the Elite line, aesthetics as well. The Elite line is still not terribly powerful, but it's a total attitude switch. Nerf has even increased the prices to match. A $20 alpha trooper is looking pretty cheap now. Meanwhile, in the background, they continue to re-release the mav and nite finder as small gun mainstays.

As for manufacturing costs, there is no way in hell that a Hailfire or a Hydroblitz or Vulcan would ever have been made if those were truly limiting factors. Look at how complex that shit is. Look at all those moving parts, every one needing precise machining to align correctly. Then open up a CPS 2000 and tell me you couldn't make that for half the price. You could assemble one and disassemble it with your eyes closed. It only has like 8 components! You can't even count how many there are in a longshot, and that's considered a "simple" primary.

This stuff just doesn't add up with the Super Soaker line. At this point, I personally don't think they even have a plan anymore. The conventional excuses that we hear year in and year out don't stack up the same way anymore. Shelf space, pricing, target demographics, manufacturing costs, safety regs, etc...it's no longer adding up and you can watch Nerf breaking all of them in one way or another. Same division of the company.

It's as if they've just stopped caring period, not that they've switched strategies.

[marauder]

I've said before that I actually believe that Super Soaker is targetting older kids now more than ever. Look at the age difference between an XP 55 commercial (6 year olds) and modern soaker commercials. Also, Super Soaker, has been hosting big wars at Florida State University, handing out free guns. The styling, everything, but performance looks like it would appeal to both older as well as younger kids.

My one thought about production cost is how much does the CPS pressure chamber cost to make? SS hasn't shied away from using CPS style rubber bladders, but they have been significantly smaller than past models, despite the fact that some guns (Hydroblitz, Hydrocannon) have been on the large side.

[isoaker]

I don't buy the shelf space limitation argument much, because of the longshot...and the longstrike...and the vulcan...and the hydroblitz...and the hydrocannon...and the Hailfire...and the gazillion other toys out there with big boxes.Every isle will have something to prove that wrong.

This example is inaccurate since you're using a brand, Nerf, that more-or-less has the lion share of the market. When the Super Soaker brand had that, they could push out items like the Monster XL that makes all of those items look small. This is also why the struggling Super Soaker brand got pushed under Nerf - for better brand recognition.

I also don't buy the pricing argument, because many of the modern Nerf and NSS models are quite expensive, relative to size. Then again, it is Hasbro and retailers know the Nerf brand sells. The have more leeway to produce these things, but the point is that they do. Every time I go to Target I see tons of wasted shelf space anyway.

Another inaccurate example since this uses Nerf which has the majority of sales. Competing companies don't have this luxury. Then there's the who complex issue on how retailers divy up retail space, but that's a whole other story.

I just don't buy the 5 cheaper items over 1 big item thing.

You don't, but the 5 other kids/parents who also shop in the store often buy a bunch of smaller stuff as opposed to the one big item. When it comes to sales, need to use consumer average spending habits, not individual specific users. There are people willing to pay hundreds of dollars on old CPS blasters on eBay does not translate into enough people willing to buy a $100 water blaster sold in stores.

If consumers are willing to pay for Lightning Storms and other motorized crap, I don't see why they wouldn't want something like a CPS 1200 or 1500, which would probably cost around the same amount, if not cheaper.

Not sure how well Lightning Storms are actually selling. Moreover, motors/electronics, in some ways, can be made more cheaply than the components needed for a CPS-blaster. It's not just about having a good bladder, but also needing better plastics for the connection points. That said, they are also riding on the Nerf and Super Soaker brand names.

As for the pricing thing, the increases in manufacturing costs have gone up over the past 2 years. The Nerf Super Soaker brand can get away with doing some things since they have Nerf to help support costs. Competitors don't have that luxury. This doesn't mean that that explains why Nerf Super Soakers aren't pushing out better stuff. It does, however, help explain why it is so hard for other companies to make larger products. Let's not mix up points here.

To summarize, if you want a CPS-type blaster, it would be made by Hasbro under the Nerf Super Soaker brand. Why they are not making more and better ones is beyond current comprehension. However, if you want an air pressure water blaster that has comparable performance, it needs to have larger PCs and that both costs more and takes up more space. This makes is less attractive to retailers to sell unless it is under a widely recognized brand and they feel confident the average consumer is willing to get one. Buzz Bee Toys' Water Warriors brand is getting there, but since their Air Blasters line is not as well-known as Hasbro's Nerf line and that they are a much smaller company, they cannot afford to take as much chances. Remember, if a product does not sell well, not only does this annoy a retailer, but it can also end up costing the manufacturer to cover in part the costs of the unsold goods.

[HBWW]

I don't buy the shelf space limitation argument much, because of the longshot...and the longstrike...and the vulcan...and the hydroblitz...and the hydrocannon...and the Hailfire...and the gazillion other toys out there with big boxes.Every isle will have something to prove that wrong.

This example is inaccurate since you're using a brand, Nerf, that more-or-less has the lion share of the market. When the Super Soaker brand had that, they could push out items like the Monster XL that makes all of those items look small. This is also why the struggling Super Soaker brand got pushed under Nerf - for better brand recognition.

What about BBT's dart blasters? They sell some pretty large blasters too. The only argument against that is that dart blasters are generally more popular than water blasters but that still doesn't hold up for the HydroBlitz, HydroCannon, and the fact that you do not need that much space to make performing water guns. Of course, the situation is different for BBT obviously, but there is literally no clear reason that Hasbro can't produce combat-capable blasters.

Yes, yes, better guns make better wars, etc. but at some point when the guns are so bad, it becomes something a bit different. Granted it's still fun, but it's goofy having squirt guns around when water bottles do the job better, and it's goofy having a water war with only water bottles.

BBT's under every kind of restraint possible, it seems. The CPS injunction, the limitations to their molds and materials (hence the lack of higher diameter internals for more flow; this is obviously a prohibitive cost issue as it would return more performance gain than anything else if it were improved), the (shelf-space-prohibitive) lack of brand recognition (which is at least improving, which is evident by how their products have changed over time as well as how often they appear), etc.

In any case, nobody should rely too much on the market. It's not going to spark interest, and the only way to go seems to be to promote events.

So what happens?
1. Water war enthusiast has small collection of CPSs but can't get more to lend out due to cost and/or storage issues.
2. Said enthusiast gathers small following.
3. Following does not have time/money/interest to obtain blasters that allow the player to be competitive in said wars. Without rearranging/readapting the game rules to suit these players, wars are impacted negatively which can hurt player interest particularly if the imbalances are not sorted out well.
4. Followers/friends of enthusiasts do not get a fair chance to sample high end water weaponry short of just sitting around and shooting borrowed CPS's. Instead of being able to pick it up from the store, they have to go to eBay or find other means of getting the goods.

Perhaps this is too far-fetched, but the issue is there to an extent.

[isoaker]

Regarding the whole business of comparing water blasters to dart blasters, you still need to remember that dart blasters have an accepted playability spanning the entire year since most dart wars take place indoors. Water blasters still end up falling into the seasonal category despite our own membership showing that mid-winter wars are possible.

Now, that does not mean that a big blaster is impossible. However, even back-in-the-day (circa 1998) the sheer quantity of larger blasters sold versus smaller ones makes it more profitable to sell smaller ones since they just tend to sell faster and in higher quantity. Bigger blasters help cater to the older crowd and we definitely prefer it when performance matches the increased size. We just seem to be in an awkward time for our sport, but hopefully we've already hit the "low" point and that options begin showing an improvement in quality and performance in the coming years. I know I'm doing all I can to help bring about better stock blasters. If the modders and homemade builders come up with a great concept or feasible improvements that can be mass-produced, those, too, may be able to feed into the next generation of what ends up available on the market.